Temper Your Expectations For The Length Of This Coronavirus Pandemic

Here in New Zealand the lockdown, combined with restrictions on who can enter the country, appears to be having a positive effect. New infections are trending down and the recovery rate looks good. It may only be a matter of weeks before the Government is ready to allow some more freedoms to be enjoyed.

Elsewhere the situation is looking less rosy. Europe and the United States are seeing infection rates growing faster than at any time in the crisis, whilst fatalities continue to climb too.

Yet even there, it will come to a time when infection is apparently under control and politicians turn their eyes to rebuilding the economy.

That may be the most dangerous point, especially in those countries with long land borders and a reliance on cross border trade.

The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 didn't actually die down until the end of 1920, as the presence of the disease in localities threatened to cause new outbreaks. That's three years of pandemic following a global war – worsening the impact of war deaths by disproportionately killing young adults, helping to decimate a whole generation. Those secondary waves of infections in 1919 and 1920 were responsible for almost as many deaths as the first wave of infections to strike.

Even with the prospect of vaccines, better healthcare and the hope for herd immunity, it is unlikely that a rapid global recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is going to possible. Once a vaccine is discovered, the need to manufacture and then administer that drug to billions of people is going to be a logistical nightmare, requiring a lengthy period of time to complete to a sufficient level to deliver herd immunity.

There's also the prospect of the virus itself mutating. These antigenic drifts can change the surface proteins of a virus, meaning that antibodies, which rely on antigenic binding to recognize and latch onto virus cells, are no longer effective. Rendering a vaccine ineffective.

By the time the world comes out of this pandemic it will be a very different place. Economically and culturally.