on
climate
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
- Get link
- X
- Other Apps
There's a lot being written about the novel Coronavirus which originated in Wuhan right at the end of last year. As of today, four weeks since it was first identified, 56 people have died and 2,000 more been infected. Cities in China are in various stages of lockdown and the world is watching as cases around the world start to see cases appearing in their own localities. Coronaviruses are a family of infections which crossover from animals to humans.
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV looks to be a new strain of SARS, although it hasn't yet been established which species it originated in. SARS appeared in late 2002, killed around 10% of those infected and was determined to have originated in bats from the Yunnan province of China. SARS resulted in 774 deaths over a period of eight months, before disappearing in 2004.
The latest outbreak could have a similar impact to that of SARS, however that's a best case scenario at this stage. Currently it has been reported that it is dangerous to the old, infirm and those with existing chest conditions. In a world where Asthma resulting from air pollution has resulted in more than 350 million people being diagnosed with the sort of chest infection which makes them especially vulnerable to this sort of infection.
For the worst case scenario we have to look back one hundred years, to the post World War One Spanish Influenza pandemic. The 1918 pandemic was the result of H1N1 a coronavirus which crossed over from pigs to humans and is commonly known as Swine Flu today. It is known as Spanish Flu because politicians in Europe and the US decided to censor reports of the gravity of the infections, whilst Spanish media was given free rein to report the truth.
And that truth was staggering - half a billion people were infected and somewhere between 50 and 100 million died. More than the total casualties of World War One and World War Two combined. In 1918 the global population was 1.8 billion. That's more than 25% of the global population infected and 3 - 5% killed. In today's world that would equate to nearly two billion infected and 200-400 million deaths. 1918's medical facilities and ability to deal with the sick was limited compared to today, however global mobility was much, much more restricted and cities were much smaller.
Wuhan, the source of the current outbreak, is home to somewhere in the region of 11 million people. We've already seen that those people move around the world faster than the authorities can restrict them. And the news that patients are contagious in the virus's incubation stage (that is, before any symptoms appear) means that attempts to control the spread by scanning travellers temperatures at airports is a weak response.
Thus far the vast majority of cases remain in China and the mortality rate is a little under 3%, however the rapid increase in the number of cases (4300% between 16th Jan and 25th Jan, a doubling og the number every day and a half) suggests that the worst is in front of us, not behind.
Currently more than 40 million people in China are under some form of quarantine and the country is building two hospitals from pre-fabricated buildings to accommodate those with symptoms and to assist with isolation. A remarkable achievement and one which should be applauded. What would be a rather more remarkable achievement is being able to contain the spread of the virus both within China and abroad.
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV looks to be a new strain of SARS, although it hasn't yet been established which species it originated in. SARS appeared in late 2002, killed around 10% of those infected and was determined to have originated in bats from the Yunnan province of China. SARS resulted in 774 deaths over a period of eight months, before disappearing in 2004.
The latest outbreak could have a similar impact to that of SARS, however that's a best case scenario at this stage. Currently it has been reported that it is dangerous to the old, infirm and those with existing chest conditions. In a world where Asthma resulting from air pollution has resulted in more than 350 million people being diagnosed with the sort of chest infection which makes them especially vulnerable to this sort of infection.
For the worst case scenario we have to look back one hundred years, to the post World War One Spanish Influenza pandemic. The 1918 pandemic was the result of H1N1 a coronavirus which crossed over from pigs to humans and is commonly known as Swine Flu today. It is known as Spanish Flu because politicians in Europe and the US decided to censor reports of the gravity of the infections, whilst Spanish media was given free rein to report the truth.
And that truth was staggering - half a billion people were infected and somewhere between 50 and 100 million died. More than the total casualties of World War One and World War Two combined. In 1918 the global population was 1.8 billion. That's more than 25% of the global population infected and 3 - 5% killed. In today's world that would equate to nearly two billion infected and 200-400 million deaths. 1918's medical facilities and ability to deal with the sick was limited compared to today, however global mobility was much, much more restricted and cities were much smaller.
Wuhan, the source of the current outbreak, is home to somewhere in the region of 11 million people. We've already seen that those people move around the world faster than the authorities can restrict them. And the news that patients are contagious in the virus's incubation stage (that is, before any symptoms appear) means that attempts to control the spread by scanning travellers temperatures at airports is a weak response.
Thus far the vast majority of cases remain in China and the mortality rate is a little under 3%, however the rapid increase in the number of cases (4300% between 16th Jan and 25th Jan, a doubling og the number every day and a half) suggests that the worst is in front of us, not behind.
Currently more than 40 million people in China are under some form of quarantine and the country is building two hospitals from pre-fabricated buildings to accommodate those with symptoms and to assist with isolation. A remarkable achievement and one which should be applauded. What would be a rather more remarkable achievement is being able to contain the spread of the virus both within China and abroad.
Comments