New Transport Models For The Mega Cities Of 2050

The airline industry is a perfect example of a business squeezing every last drop of value out of an expensive asset. On the ground turnaround times have become shorter as loading processes and turnaround procedures have become slicker. Companies have refocused on their key business truth: airplanes on the ground aren't earning money.

As consumers we have a very specific set of high utilisation devices - for most people a laptop, smartphone and tablet, from which we derive a pretty good return against the purchase price. We also have one asset which gets very little use at all and it's one of the most expensive assets we'll acquire. Our cars.

In terms of utilisation owning a car makes little or no sense. Most people commute in their cars and then rarely use them again during the working week. The main role a car fills in our lives is that of an expensive, depreciating asset which is parked somewhere at great expense.

The running and fixed costs of owning a car make no sense for the average commuter. With daily commutes requiring around sixty minutes each way, during the work week our utilisation is just 10%. At weekends that increases, but overall very few people spend more than 20% of their time actually using their cars.

In the US the average monthly car repayment is more than $500 and the average payment term is 68 months. That's without considering other costs like insurance, fuel, maintenance and taxes. That is an awful lot of money to pay for something which is idle 80% of the time.

Here is where the quality of mass transit systems makes a real difference to people's lives. In a city like London with excellent tube, bus, rail and water links, life without a car is a breeze. Other capital cities (in Europe at least) offer a similarly fluid experience. For those times when you must have a car, taxis or short term hire easily fills the gap. The net gain from not owning a car is significant. And with a reduction in the number of cars comes an increase in the quality of life. Better air quality, more exercise, fewer accidents and injuries; and ultimately safer, friendlier streets.

In our view of the Mega City of the future, a reduction in car traffic, tied to an increase in the number and quality of bus services go hand in hand in improving the lot of the city dweller. More so where the space used to store cars  - garages, parking lots, front gardens, etc. - can be repurposed as additional living space, public spaces and go back to being gardens again. 

For home owners, a garage or parking spot can be a sizeable proportion of the land area of their home. A piece of land which isn't being used for living. Even for those who park on the roadside there are costs attached, pricier insurance, repairs and inconvenience.

This creates a gap for last mile travel solutions, and for those cities which have allowed services to be run, e-bike and e-scooter hire is an obvious answer. 

Whether that be the model being allowed right now, where several private services litter the streets with these options or whether that be a centralised service run on behalf of the Mega City; there's an opportunity for very cheap mobilisation of the last mile. 

And connecting that last mile is crucial for the integrated transport system of the future Mega City.