Rising demand and constricted supply - is there a global rice crisis on the way?

Rice. Not probably something that you give much thought to as you pick it up from your local supermarket, but in some countries it is a food staple and the only thing keeping populations from mass starvation. The number of people who rely on rice has been increasing as the global population has boomed. 

So a constriction in supply at a time when demand is at its highest is a real problem.

Restriction in supply has been driven from two directions: climate change and governments of major exporters securing supplies for their own use rather than allowing rice to leave their shores unchecked.

Global warming is the root cause of these drivers. Directly, drought followed by floods damages harvestable crops, reducing the yield. This has been a particular problem in South-East Asia. For that reason, the Indian government has started to restrict exports of its rice, to ensure supply for its own consumers. India is responsible for more than a third of global rice exports, this has caused global problems. 80% of rice consumed in Africa originates in India.

Compounding the problem have been the ongoing problems caused by Pakistan's 2022 floods, which left a third of the country - the world's fourth largest rice exporter - under water. Meanwhile, drought in California means that US exports are down as well. In Europe, the war in Ukraine means that exports are reduced there too.

Overall, the United Nations says that rice production is falling at the rate of 2% per year, although it's down by 16% in the United States.

Put all of these factors together and people in poorer countries who rely on imported rice as a cheap and readily available food source are going to find that it is neither as cheap nor as readily available as it has been in the past. In just a few years we may be staring down the barrel of starvation in poorer nations which dwarfs anything the world has seen before. That may not be something which we can stop from happening but by taking meaningful climate action now, it may be possible to slow the impact of global warming on rice crops and reduce the impact on the world's poor.