Microsoft ticked off another milestone for Windows 10 at Build yesterday, announcing that the platform was now in use across 500 million devices. That's up significantly since this time last year, when Windows 10 was installed on 300 million devices.
Confirming the level of growth, Windows 10 is now in use on more than 26% of computers, according to NetMarketShare - its best figures to date.
Microsoft has significantly missed its target of one billion installs though and the currently popular reason for this not happening is the failure of Windows 10 Mobile. I don't buy that. Firstly, even at its highest peak of sales (right before the launch of Windows 10) the idea of smartphones adding more than a handful of devices to the Windows 10 pool would have been ridiculous.
And, secondly, it seems highly unlikely Microsoft would have taken Windows smartphone sales into account in its initial predictions when the company was planning on killing the (effectively) platform within a few weeks anyway.
No, whatever metrics led Microsoft to believe Windows 10 upgrades would happen more than twice as quickly as they have done, were flawed. My guess is Microsoft overestimated the desire for Windows 7 users to upgrade, especially those enterprises which had just been through a painful exercise of removing Windows XP from their fleet.