Almost exactly one year ago Apple announced its iPhone Upgrade plan which allowed customers to buy an iPhone on a two year instalment plan and upgrade after one year. All those buyers who took advantage of the offer will be able to jump to a new iPhone 7 or 7S, probably sometime later this month.
How will this affect Apple’s sales over the rest of 2016? I suspect they will skyrocket. In previous years Apple has only been able to count on sales to users reaching the end of their two year mobile plan, who were free to sign up to another subsidised iPhone right after launch. This year as well as all those iPhone 6 users who are itching for a new device it will also be able to sell another iPhone to all those users who are in the upgrade program. Not to mention Note 7 cross sales, over and above any switchers it normally picks up around this time of year.
Potentially the second half of 2016 could see a complete turnaround when compared to the first half, where iPhone sales stuttered when compared to the market as a whole.
The only question is how many iPhone 6S buyers took advantage of the Upgrade program and has their iPhone experience been good enough to persuade them to commit to another two years of payments in return for a new iPhone?
The answers are probably quite a lot and yes, of course, what a dumb question, in that order.