Skip to main content

Brexit: Now The Fun Begins

london

Britain has decided, the EU gets the cold shoulder and the United Kingdom will forge its own future outside the union. I have no legal or financial insight into what happens next or how the will of the people gets enacted. Having left the country behind I shouldn’t really have an opinion one way or another. But I am an interested party, with financial and family commitments in the UK and young children who might now be denied the opportunity to live and work in Europe had that been in their future.

With the resignation of David Cameron, who shoulders the blame or shares the credit for the decision (depending on your viewpoint), the Conservative party needs to elect a new Prime Minister and a new cabinet that will take ownership of the exit negotiations.

That in itself will be a challenge.

Primary candidate is almost certainly going to be Boris Johnson. The former London mayor seems a most inappropriate person to lead the country at any time, never mind at such a pivotal one. And what of Nigel Farage, the man whose ambitions were realised so spectacularly last night? Will he not demand a position for the only UKIP MP in the new cabinet?

Aside from the negotiations around the mechanics of separation, there are the lives and livelihoods of the near five million people who either are either British and live in the rest of the EU, or are EU citizens plying their trade in the UK. Then there are the trade figures. 50% of UK trade (in each direction) is with the EU. Renegotiating trade agreements is going to require a steady and diplomatic hand on the wheel. So not Johnson. And especially not Farage.

The geographical split in voting may prove problematic too. Scotland and Northern Ireland were firmly in favour of staying in the EU and whilst the former may choose to leverage this into a second cessation referendum, the latter raises the possibility of messy, unpleasant and troublesome Irish re-unification demands. Never mind the loss of significant EU funding that has supported the Peace Process.

The UK’s exit from the EU has no precedent. In that respect the tales of woe and joy from those on either side of the argument should be taken with a large pinch of salt. Claims made by either side can be easily countered by claims from the other. Neither side of the argument has a crystal ball. What is important now is for politicians on both sides of the argument to accept that the people have spoken and that delivering a plan for this new future is what should occupy their efforts now.

There is no doubt that this outcome has been considered and planned for by all parties, and strategies have been formulated to ensure that the next couple of years do not end up being the crashing calamity that mismanagement could cause.

So whilst money markets and stock exchanges may veer all over the place in the next few weeks and months, it is the position two, five and ten years out that should be occupying our thoughts right now. Whatever the reasons, myths or lies that drove this decision, it has been made, and the real calamity would be to fail to make the best of the position the EU and the UK now find themselves in.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

F1: Robert Kubica Impresses In Renault Test Run

The car may be old but its the performance of the driver that's the story here. Robert Kubica returned to F1, after a fashion, earlier this week with an extensive test run in a 2012 Lotus Renault F1 car at Valencia.
The age of the car and the circuit were likely determined by F1's current rules which ban testing, but the reason for Kubica being in the car is far more interesting. Considered by many to be a potential World Champion and certainly one of the fastest drivers of his generation, Kubica's F1 career seemed to be over after a 2011 crash whilst driving in the Rally of Andora. His Skoda Fabia was penetrated by a guardrail in the high speed accident partially severing his right arm.
Up until last year Kubica has been competing in rallying, with the expectation that the limited movement in his repaired arm would prohibit a return to single seater racing.
So this week's test is both interesting and confusing. Interesting because Kubica completed 115 laps of the ret…

F1: Robert Kubica's Williams Test Asks More Questions Than It Answers

Comparing driver's times at a tyre evaluation test like last week's Abu Dhabi event is difficult at the best of times, but when trying to assess the performance of a driver who has been out of the sport for six years, that difficulty level is raised even higher.
On the face of it Robert Kubica's test for Williams was a success. Fastest of the three Williams drivers present the headlines look promising. However, taking into consideration the different tyres used to set those times muddies the water considerably.
Kubica ran a three lap qualifying simulation on the new 'hyper-soft' tyre - which should have given him a two-second advantage. Correcting for tyres it would appear that Kubica was significantly slower than Sergei Sorotkin - who was on the harder 'soft' tyre - and marginally quicker than Lance Stroll, the team's only contracted driver.

Stroll's family fortune currently funds Williams, so there' no chance that he will be anywhere but in a…

Panos Panay's Defence Of Microsoft Surface Hardware Sounds Eerily Familiar

This weekend I went out with my ten year old daughter to select a laptop for her school year beginning in January. The schools requirements are quite specific, requiring a Windows 10 device, with a preference for a touchscreen and a stylus. She chose a Surface Pro, after trying a large number of different options. Having seen the way I use my own Surface Pro - and tried it herself there was only ever going to be two options - and the other was a Surface Laptop.
I tell you this so that you understand I am a buyer of Microsoft's products through choice, not compulsion. I'm on my third Surface device now. 
So when Panos Panay dismissed reports of the death of the Surface hardware line, I was very interested to see exactly how strong these denials were. Especially how they reflect what has gone before. To whit: Windows 10 Mobile.
Panay claimed that Microsoft is in hardware for the long haul. Almost exactly mirroring the words of Terry Myerson, when he claimed Windows Mobile was g…