Apple's Music Is A Long Term Game

Apple has signed up 11m users for its Music service so far - a number which looks good but doesn't account for the entirely free nature of the service, for the first 90 days at least.
Like all things Apple does at the moment, the long term game converges with the company's interests. There are half a billion iPhone users out there, 200 million iPad users and more iPod Touch and Apple TVs than you can shake a stick at.
Apple knows that it needs to increment that number of users by only a very small percentage of its installed user base to blow the rest of the streaming market away.
It would seem that Apple has moved the needle on trial users by one million users - or 10% - since the end of the first month of availability. If it keeps adding users at that rate - and its conversion rate sits at, say, 30%, it will bypass Spotify as the largest paid streaming service sometime around mid-2017 - assuming the latter doesn't see a fall off in subscribers as they switch to Apple.
And by that time the Music service will be adding close to a $1bn a quarter to Apple's bottom line...


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