Reading the news over the weekend you would definitely be under the impression that the Apple Watch has been a complete disaster and you should sell your shares in Apple immediately, pausing only to demand the heads of Cook and Ive on a silver platter.
That's complete nonsense and probably evidence of wholesale attempts to manipulate Apple's share price for significant profit.
First of all the numbers. They've been culled from a dubious source, but lets go with them. Slice claims that since launch Watch sales have fallen off a cliff, dropping from 200,000 a day to 20,000 a day.
Doesn't sound great? How about we round those numbers for a year of sales? Assuming the 200,000 holds true for week one only, and there's an immediate drop to 20,000 to give us an absolute worst case scenario, that amounts to more than eight million units in the first year. If you then add in the one and a half million sales that were made in the pre-order period you're looking at a overall year one performance in the region of ten million items.
There's no measure against which this could be considered a failure. The Apple Watch hasn't proved its mettle yet, and these sales to early adopters are akin to those that Apple made with the original iPhone. For a device with only a limited appeal and a high purchase price (and no doubt massive profit margins) ten million units in year one would be a significant achievement.
As I warned before the Watch arrived, version one of any new Apple product is always flawed and its the second one that you should be saving your pennies for. With this in mind those ten million sales look pretty impressive.
How about the market manipulation? Apple's share price has skyrocketed in the last year, making further big gains questionable. Bad press around court cases, federal enquiries, weak iPad and Watch sales have knocked the share price back for most of the last month, allowing those price manipulators to buy cheaply before pumping the market again when Apple's earnings call happens next week.
The truth is that Apple has made a good start with the Watch and it's only likely to get better as customer feedback informs development.
You may not want one now, but you soon will.