How well is the Apple Watch really doing?
I've covered this before, however detail from Apple's financial call yesterday allows some educated guesses at numbers and performance.
First of all Apple has claimed that it isn't breaking out sales numbers because it doesn't want to provide competitors with information which may help them. I'll call BS on that straight away. Apple has never been shy about numbers when they have been good. Which means that the numbers for Apple Watch haven't been what Apple hoped for. Also Apple's claim that it's just catching up with demand is a bit smelly too, given that you've been able to walk in and buy one in store for a while and the market is being expanded to low volume countries like New Zealand next week.
Lumping the Watch sales in with all of Apple's other orphan children (like the iPod) doesn't strike me as a particularly positive move either. However if we take some educated guesses around trends and changes, compare 'Other' sales to past quarters and stick a finger in the air, I'm guessing the Apple Watch was a $1-1.5bn business for Apple last quarter.
What about an ARPU for the Watch? Well the cheapest Watch is $349, with the mid-ranger $549. I think we can safely ignore the Edition for volume calculations. Splitting that volume 50-50, 75-25 and 25-75 gives total sales between two and two and a half million at the low end and three to three and a half million at the high end. That's right on the money for the ten million I predicted here.
That doesn't strike me as a failure by anyone's measure except Apple's own expectations. For a version one product with obvious and well-documented flaws that's a remarkable achievement.