Blackberry 10 Launched, But Will It Survive?

After what seems like an interminable delay Blackberry 10 arrived yesterday, along with new handsets and a ditching of the RIM name. General  perception from those who've had hands on time is that the OS catches up to where iOS and Android were six months ago and doesn't add anything new to the mix. That may be enough to keep current Blackberry users in the fold, but will it attract users from their iPhones and Galaxies? I suspect not.

This means real trouble for Blackberry. As the market grows its market share will shrink if it can't bring new users into the platform, if its market share shrinks then developers will be unlikely to target the platform for those big name or high demand apps that users actually want.

The same problem current affects Windows Phone, however both Microsoft and Nokia are plunging huge resources into assisting developers get new apps out. Against this the $10m that Blackberry has set aside to support developers looks very light.

With iOS and Android hoovering up 92% of the smartphone market worldwide there's little space for too many other competitors. Windows Phone is starting to see some growth and I suspect that Blackberry is now in a battle to the death with Microsoft for third platform status.

Looking at the current platforms and ecosystems you have to say it doesn't look like a battle that Blackberry can win...


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